Now as most of you know, I'm not a big gambler. I rarely go to the casino and aside from the occasional options trade with my Roth IRA, I rarely put my money at risk. I guess you can call me risk averse. However, when I do wonder off to the casino, the only games I play are Poker (Texas hold'em) and Blackjack. I play these because I feel I somehow have more control over my destiny than with other games. With Poker this is pretty easy, fold the bad hands and only play the good ones. With Blackjack, however, this can be a bit more tricky, unless of course you know how to count cards. Now, I'm no card counting expert, I've read all about it and it's way too complicated to implement in real-time. Luckily, I found a short cut. I call it 'Card Sweeping'. And for the first time, I am making this priceless knowledge public for all to see! So here goes...
Your chances of winning a random hand of blackjack in a typical Vegas casino are approximately 49.36%. This assumes the table is dealing a 6 deck shoe and that you play by the book using Basic Strategy. When compared to most other table games in a casino these chances are pretty good. But the key to blackjack is not simply its favorable odds, but rather a player’s inherent ability to ‘tilt’ the odds in his/her favor. It’s been proven that card counting techniques work and if executed properly, can give a player a significant advantage over the house. While the details of card counting are beyond the scope of this discussion, the basic idea is this: If you can keep track of what cards have already been dealt, you can theoretically predict the likelihood of what the next cards will be. As a result you can increase your bet when the cards will be in your favor and decrease your bet when they won’t. True card counting however, can get quite complicated and requires you to keep a running count of every single card that comes out of the shoe. This can be challenging especially if you’re not particularly quick at math or if you've had a few too many free cocktails. Additionally, card counting is banned at most casinos so unless you’re an expert at being covert, I don’t recommend wasting your time. Fortunately there is an easier way.
By relying on the law of averages you can make sweeping assumptions about the running card count which can all but eliminate the need of ‘counting’ anything. Statistically speaking, my card sweeping technique performs just as well in simulations as even some of the most advanced card counting techniques. For those who are interested in the math, I use a modified version of the KO Rookie system and plug in some assumptions into a spreadsheet which enables me to adjust my triggers according to the players at the table and decks being used. I'm happy to explain in greater details for anyone who's interested. For the rest of us, here are the basics:
First of all, the pre-requisite for this technique is that you must use Basic Strategy for all your hits, doubles and splits. If you don’t already know Basic Strategy, I recommend reading the Wikipedia article and downloading the Basic Strategy reference sheet. Most casinos will allow you to use it at the table, so go ahead and print it out and bring it with you.
OK now for the good stuff:
Step 1:
Decide on 3 bet amounts (minimum, high, and max). These can be whatever amounts you want, but make sure you have enough in your stack to bet the minimum amount at least 10 times before you have to re-up. I usually start with the table minimum; double that for the high, then double that again for the max. (so $15, $30 and $60 respectively with a stack of at least $150).
Step 2:
Find a table with a 6 deck shoe and at least 3 players (excluding you and the dealer). Ideally you will be sitting at a table with 5 total players (including you and the dealer). 6 deck shoes are the most common blackjack tables in Vegas so it shouldn’t be too hard to find one. If you can’t find one with 3 players and six decks, simply refer to the spreadsheet for other deck / player options.
Step 3:
Place your first bet, your minimum. After all the cards are dealt, in one ‘sweep’ of the table, count the total number of 10’s or above(Face Cards and Aces) that were dealt. If your count is 3 or less increase your bet on the next hand. If the count is 4 or 5 keep the same bet amount, if the count is more than 5 reduce your bet.
Step 4:
Repeat step 3, increasing your bet each hand up to your max and decreasing down to your minimum based on the previous sweep count. Got it?
Let's Review... 3 or less 10's increase your bet, 4 or 5 keep the same bet, more than 5 decrease... That's It!
Step 5:
Walk away when you earned enough!
Please Note: The numbers change slightly with more or less players at the table and/or more or less decks but you can refer to my handy spreadsheet for adjustments. So good luck, and let me know how it goes.
